That is a very good answer bear! Respect! IT IS ONLY ONE BEAR and I agree with cunego in what he is saying about you. I totaly see your point with the hand, and love the way you are presenting the arguments this time, but still I disagree with you. I will try to tell you why, but keep in mind that the discution is on a much higher level now, so I could be wrong. Therefor im looking forward to your answer again.
I love that you are trying to focus on the consept of lowering the variance as much as posible... This is very very very important in tournements imo. The value of not busting is essential. However... If you are playing against an oponent you think is bader then you this makes sence, but if you are up against a better player, variance is your friend (especially if you are short stacked and hu (and in omaha where taking the hand before showdown is lots of value). Then it is spotpicking and pushing cunego have been very successfull with. And again he is 56/44 up against a pro (remember the two big omaha pots against PA, we had the same discussion then I remember).
ok, lets try to step into cunegoes shoes. What would we put anette on, on the flop when the money goes in?
My list goes like this, correct it if you disagree.
Straight:80%
Overset:10%
Only draw:1%
Only to pairs:2%
Draw and two pairs:3%
Airbluff without draws:5%
With this numbers I think you have a golden oportunity to end it all. Could not have been played better imo! Would have been fun if rikard could have asked annette what she thinks about it in an interwiev. Maybe also PA?? I agree with you about the visdom you can gain with discussing hands like this. It is very interesting to see a game between such good players!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dax6w3RgDWAAwesome video!