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Ooooooops 6max Session #1.5
Ooooooops
#1 Posted : 9/5/2010 11:46:32 AM(UTC)
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Here you can discuss the following videos.
Click link below to open video player in pop-up window.

Ooooooops 6max Session #1.5

Not really a full session, so I don't really count it as session 2. Not much to comment on in terms of my play since I did not get to play many hands, but some talking points are raised.

had to end session because my mate who was due to come over arrived =]

p.s anyone who watches till the end and is wondering where we were going, we were going for a donkey ride together.




P.P.S Apologies for the weird periodic interference, had my phone too close to the mic.. wont happen again


Don't hate the game, hate the player.
norakepl0x
#2 Posted : 9/5/2010 5:02:48 PM(UTC)
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Dude that jack9hh hand at the start... U did nothing to wrong. the bet on the turn (1.80 into like 2.70) Gives u like 2.5 to 1 on a call. u have picked up a double gutshot as well as a flush draw if i remember correctly. This gives u arround 33% chance to make a straight or flush on the river meaning u need 2 to 1 on a call to make it the exact right play. Even if u do not make a cent on the river when u make ur hand its still not a bad play. With that in mind aswell as the fact that at 5c10c Villain is so likely to stack of very lightly or atleast pay of a value bet on the river. Ive played like 25k hands at this limit in the last few days and am beating it at arround 17bb/100 (although i have been playing the 250bb buy in tables). These kind of hands are where i have made most of my profit. The players are unlikely to fold. Maybe one thing i would do different in that spot is 3 bet the flop to put preassure on the min raise as its likely to be a weak hand like 1 pair. There is a chance he is super strong like a set but even then if u get it in its never that bad a play with 12 outs =].

Also on another note that player Mhobyduck or whatever that loses with the set of 9's i used to play against at this game like a year ago. its helarious he is still there grinding away at im sure like 16+tables. He is super nitty. Free info =]
Ooooooops
#3 Posted : 9/5/2010 5:17:20 PM(UTC)
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norakepl0x wrote:
Dude that jack9hh hand at the start... U did nothing to wrong. the bet on the turn (1.80 into like 2.70) Gives u like 2.5 to 1 on a call. u have picked up a double gutshot as well as a flush draw if i remember correctly. This gives u arround 33% chance to make a straight or flush on the river meaning u need 2 to 1 on a call to make it the exact right play. Even if u do not make a cent on the river when u make ur hand its still not a bad play. With that in mind aswell as the fact that at 5c10c Villain is so likely to stack of very lightly or atleast pay of a value bet on the river. Ive played like 25k hands at this limit in the last few days and am beating it at arround 17bb/100 (although i have been playing the 250bb buy in tables). These kind of hands are where i have made most of my profit. The players are unlikely to fold. Maybe one thing i would do different in that spot is 3 bet the flop to put preassure on the min raise as its likely to be a weak hand like 1 pair. There is a chance he is super strong like a set but even then if u get it in its never that bad a play with 12 outs =].

Also on another note that player Mhobyduck or whatever that loses with the set of 9's i used to play against at this game like a year ago. its helarious he is still there grinding away at im sure like 16+tables. He is super nitty. Free info =]





Cheers for the info mate. My thinking on the J,9 hand is that if I just call and I miss on the river he can take the pot off me a lot of the time with the kind of hand he has like a weakish flopped top pair.. since i dont think a river raise is gonna get much respect for a hand especially since I played it reasonably passively until then. Plus with no read on him I don't even know if he's being aggressive with monsters or the kind of hand he showed up with in the end. But you are probably right, nice to think I played it right even when i thought it was wrong ;]


The super nitty comment is duly noted ;]


Don't hate the game, hate the player.
norakepl0x
#4 Posted : 9/5/2010 5:33:48 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ooooooops]
norakepl0x wrote:
Dude that jack9hh hand at the start... U did nothing to wrong. the bet on the turn (1.80 into like 2.70) Gives u like 2.5 to 1 on a call. u have picked up a double gutshot as well as a flush draw if i remember correctly. This gives u arround 33% chance to make a straight or flush on the river meaning u need 2 to 1 on a call to make it the exact right play. Even if u do not make a cent on the river when u make ur hand its still not a bad play. With that in mind aswell as the fact that at 5c10c Villain is so likely to stack of very lightly or atleast pay of a value bet on the river. Ive played like 25k hands at this limit in the last few days and am beating it at arround 17bb/100 (although i have been playing the 250bb buy in tables). These kind of hands are where i have made most of my profit. The players are unlikely to fold. Maybe one thing i would do different in that spot is 3 bet the flop to put preassure on the min raise as its likely to be a weak hand like 1 pair. There is a chance he is super strong like a set but even then if u get it in its never that bad a play with 12 outs =].

Also on another note that player Mhobyduck or whatever that loses with the set of 9's i used to play against at this game like a year ago. its helarious he is still there grinding away at im sure like 16+tables. He is super nitty. Free info =]





Cheers for the info mate. My thinking on the J,9 hand is that if I just call and I miss on the river he can take the pot off me a lot of the time with the kind of hand he has like a weakish flopped top pair.. since i dont think a river raise is gonna get much respect for a hand especially since I played it reasonably passively until then. Plus with no read on him I don't even know if he's being aggressive with monsters or the kind of hand he showed up with in the end. But you are probably right, nice to think I played it right even when it was wrong Go to Quoted Post



The super nitty comment is duly noted ;]


Basically this is a very profitable spot at this game and one u do want to be in a lot. obv if u miss just let him have the pot. If u improve id be looking to raise any bet he made or make a largish value bet even the size of the pot as so often these stupid players think its a steal attempt. Even if u never get called after the river if u run it infinite times u stand to get 2.10 back from the pot each time Meaning that investing 1.80 on the turn can never be bad. But again i reiterate you are likely to get paid more after the river often.
J Okvist
#5 Posted : 9/5/2010 5:40:44 PM(UTC)
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Hello mate again :)

Like the other guy said u did nothing wrong with that J 9 suited hand the only thing is that u might wanna reraise him flop cause he really looked weak all the way with his betting.
but you played the hand like u should do open-ender and flushdraw of course your never folding that :) but maybe raise flop or even turn is the best play im kinda in a debate on that one.
A10 K J and J 9 suited i saw u fold in pos with no one in the pot i think u should raise them and if theres a good flop c-bet but maybe bea bit weary what kind of opponent your in with if u know what i mean.
But if no one has raised before u like in this case i think u should raise cause its 6max its not too often your dominated against most donks that play 70-80% of their hands.
and as i said your obviously in pos if u raise unless the button is in and therefore u can dictate how the hand mostly will turn out if u wanna keep potcontrol or whatever.
Other then that i think your handselection is pretty spot on i liked u raising with K 10 suited from utg+2 mostly i will c-bet halfpot when 2 Aces come on board cause most of the time they dont have it and then shut down turn of course if they call.
And then folding K 10 off and QJ suited with a squeeze when someone raised is good thats the key of position in the hand of course if they guys squuezes is a big tilty fish then it may be another thing but i like folding most there cause thats the hands that will get u in trouble.
I dont like raising utg raisars too much unless they do it all the time with ex QK suited cause again its so easy he might showe with 88-99 at these stakes or even 44 some stupid people then u lost quite a good hand preflop and money that u didnt need too.
So i like the calling on the flop is 2 ways to play this u either raise flop pretty big and pretty much get it in on turn or you just call 2 times like u did and if he bets again i might even just call or when he checks u know u have the best hand and make a big valuebet just like i told u the last time ;)
They WILL pay you off more likely then not and i dont know what he had but it sure felt like AK all the way.
i like the AQ 4bet its dangerous but i like it especially when u play the player as he seems to fold to 3bets-4bets often.
But dont try it against some most of them on that level ;)
When u raised and checked back with AA was brilliant thats the most effective way to get the money ive learned on the low stakes especially they just stack off time after time.
At least 1 check on flop then bet really big on turn if they check back theyll never think u have a hand then.
But the problem is with these stakes is you can never get a read on guys cause they are so terrible there is no reasoning behind their madness.
And it was good that u checked that J 8 suited hand maybe a bet on turn but never on riv against that fishy player, and usually when the extreme fish raises they have it even if its the minraise they pretty much have the nuts unless they are tilting but thats easy to see.
I really think he had a monster that hand and was just waiting for u to bet.
Kent where is that in England wheres the nearest biggest city?
Too bad too leave all your mates behind then i know how that feels :/
Ooooooops
#6 Posted : 9/5/2010 6:11:55 PM(UTC)
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Hello again Okvist ;]



Yeah in the KQ hand that river bet sizing was mainly due to your advice! I would of usually value bet like halfpot maybe, but going on what you said on the other vid decided i'm probably missing a heap of value as It looks suspicious and i'm probably getting paid by a lot of worse/ dominated hands so i have you to thank for that one. want me to ship the 2 DollaR ? haha


With the K10s hand, I am always barrelling that AA3 Flop but as I said when fishy players are calling in the blinds they show up with a LOT of suited aces and a7 and up kind of hands that they can't lay down. If it was just me and one other guy i'd probably barrel it, but with two in the pot i think I made the right move. I like how one of them did show up with a suited ace, made me look smart BigGrin



As for hand selection I do actually loosen up alot once I get a feel for the table, but as default I like to kind of keep my range as you see in this vid. Until I know the players I don't really want to get into marginal spots with outkicked top pairs etc but I do think i could probably figure whether i'm good or not anyway so maybe I should loosen up.


Cheers again for the comments, appreciated as always and interesting to see your thoughts on my game ;]




p.s norakepl0x I didn't mean to say But you are probably right, nice to think I played it right even when it was wrong ;]

I meant to say But you are probably right, nice to think I played it right even when i thought it was wrong

I dunno if you care but I did actually appreciate that advice and dint wanna come across rude.


Don't hate the game, hate the player.
J Okvist
#7 Posted : 9/5/2010 6:34:02 PM(UTC)
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Haha well actually that KQ hand on Valubet-thinking i was actually only joking a bit ;) i dont wanna take any of your credit :)
But if you thought of what ive said im glad to help its all about variance sometimes around halfpot riv sometimes pot or even more it just felt to me watching the hand that he had something really good that he wasnt gonna lay down no matter what.
Yeah about AA3 flop i think u played it good its just i sometimes i bet out halfpot if i got it or dont cause they very rarely call with anything then an A there
so it wont cost me as much if they call and then the next flop between me and them and i hev AK for ex on A 7 2 board i might get paid more its like u almost want them to call that time and the next time u stack them off for it because then they think your gonna bluff again and again.
But as i said no fault in checking you played the hand good i just want you to think about the options and how to exploit them to your advantage later in the game.
I fully understand how u wanna play it a bit safe especially with your bankroll i guess my kind of advice are sometimes when u play with for ex 20 buy ins you should never be scared to call or make marginal decision on the riv with a couple of buy ins in the pot.
But it was only 3 or 4 hands more that ive would of played maybe 65 suited too but you cant pla every 65 suited or every A 10 or KJ for ex u gotta feel when the time is right.
Do u have time to take advantage of pokerstars WCOOP Reload Bonus its going on to the 11th if u for ex put in 500 dollars u get 100 free :)
im definetely gonna use that tomorrow always good to get 100 dollars extra :)
Where is Kent in England then?

Ooooooops
#8 Posted : 9/5/2010 6:59:09 PM(UTC)
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Nah with the KQ hand you were right, I think I was betting like I was in a tournament a bit too much with the halfpot bets etc when probably I should of been betting my made hands higher.


Yeah I think my bankroll is kind of affecting my play, I've got a feeling my bankcard hasnt even been dispatched so gonna have to go down the bank tommorow and get that sorted. Is the reload bonus on until the 11th only?? Prob won't have it by then =[

Kent is like an hour away from london so not too far from where I am now but still pretty far!


Gonna record SESSION TWO tommorow, gonna cut out all the hands with other people and just focus on the hands I'm in ..


WCOOP 1 is starting, wish I could play in it!


Don't hate the game, hate the player.
J Okvist
#9 Posted : 9/5/2010 7:29:22 PM(UTC)
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Yeah the reload bonus is until the 11th 23.59 Pm i think just before midnight anyways,
You should borrow from a friend for a few days hehe but maybe thats too much for them :)
Or talk to the bank and demand it explain the situation maybe they can do something else.
About the bankrollthing thats what i noticed now that u feel much more secure cause u know it doesnt do anything to loosa a couple of buy ins or ever more you can still take it back cause there will always be bad days and with 10 buy ins thats not optimal.
Ah Ok thats good then how is London good nightlife huh? :)
I Tried to satellite my way into it but its so hard i could buy in but i wont do it now prob next WCOOP when i have more money i dont wanna take buy ins for a tournament for now.
I Just play a couple of free tournaments via FPP.-points for now and Cashgame i think its important u dont mix too much, be really good at one thing first ex NL or Omaha and dont mix sit n gos lots of tournaments and such cause they are really different games.
I have one stratgey in tournament and a completely different mindset and strategy in Cashgame.
Good to see only your hands thats better.
78offtilt
#10 Posted : 9/6/2010 3:12:11 PM(UTC)
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Gotta ask why you top up your stack manually when there's an Auto-Topup feature?

Also the J9s hand was not played badly at all.

He bet 180 into 270 so you were getting slightly worse than 3 to 1 on a call.

You had as much as:
9 flush outs
3 jacks
3 nines
3 tens
3 sixes (notice you picked up a double gutter on the turn)

21 outs maximum! 100(21/46)=45.65% best case scenario. So only around a 1.25 to 1 dog with 1 card to come!!

If he had a set or two pair:

7 flush cards
3 tens
So 10 outs. 100(10/46)=21.74%

Obviously he can have Ax, Kx, Qx of hearts as well but since you have position you should end up winning the pot those times. But you'd still have 3 jacks, 3 nines, 3 tens and 3 sixes for twelve outs (26.09%, slightly better than 3 to 1)

If you simply averaged the two percentages you end up with around 33% equity - an average of being a 2 to 1 dog. So its a fistpump profitable call when being laid ~3 to 1.

The fact is however the probabilities should be weighted more towards the 21 outs since the likelihood is greater that all of those cards are live for you as opposed to them not. In the actual hand you had 18 outs on the turn making you slightly worse than a 3 to 2 dog.


Also you were a favourite on the flop so you could not be faulted for reraising him on the flop. Remember you had a gutshot straight flush draw and you would probably be in the region of having around 50-60% equity unless he had a set/two pair! However doing so would likely damage your ability to use position later in the hand and position always gives you extra outs.. there's the cards you can hit as outs and then there's the bluff-him-out outs! Plus if you hit your hand you could arguably win a much larger pot than if you make him fold on the flop.

BTW I'm from Chatham in Kent. Another Kent man here too!
J Okvist
#11 Posted : 9/6/2010 7:48:46 PM(UTC)
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78OFFTILT

You sure disecatted that hand haha but your missing quite a few important things let me explain them to you.
First of all he didnt know J or 9 was outs second actually he didnt know if even the flush is good so lets keep it real right.
(Most likely the flush is good and of course the straigthdraws) and the J and 9 isnt which u seemed to have forgotten cause the other guy had 89 so the 9 WASNT GOOD :)
But i guess by the way you talk your a heads up guy am i right??
Either that or you just not as good as your 3-page info on 1 hand suggests
And its nothing personal but when u blatenly lie i just gotta say something sorry mate.
But of course he should either call or raise on the flop or turn best is probably flop but that we can debate for hours.
He should never lay the hand down anyway thats fair to say.
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78offtilt on 9/7/2010(UTC)
Ooooooops
#12 Posted : 9/6/2010 8:01:19 PM(UTC)
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J Okvist wrote:



He should never lay the hand down anyway thats fair to say.







What if he'd bet like 90% - 100% of the pot on the turn, what do you think the best move is.

(if the flop action went the same way)




78OFFTILT, where are the casino's in kent? i'm looking at moving near aylesford / maidstone.. I'm gonna need a casino or a poker club to start haunting!!


Don't hate the game, hate the player.
78offtilt
#13 Posted : 9/6/2010 11:51:19 PM(UTC)
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J Okvist wrote:
78OFFTILT

You sure disecatted that hand haha but your missing quite a few important things let me explain them to you.
First of all he didnt know J or 9 was outs second actually he didnt know if even the flush is good so lets keep it real right.
(Most likely the flush is good and of course the straigthdraws) and the J and 9 isnt which u seemed to have forgotten cause the other guy had 89 so the 9 WASNT GOOD :)


Thank you for your reply.

I am not sure you read my post in its entirety.

If you read once over you will find I acknowleged that it is possible OP has only 10 outs on the turn in the event the Villain has made three of a kind.

In that event, as I said, Hero will have approximately a 21% chance (aka around a 4 to 1 chance) to improve to the best hand with one card to come.

On the other hand I also stated that it is possible that he has as many as 21 outs (45% chance to improve with 1 card to come). Please note here that I said so not because I believe he actually does have 21 outs; rather it is the case that I believe it is a merely a possibility.

I then went on to state that in the actual hand Villain's actual holding enabled Hero to have 18 outs (approximately 39% chance to improve to the best hand with 1 card to come).

Respectfully I therefore think the comment about me "lying" is somewhat over the top and not really appropriate. I hope this alleviates your discontent sir.

In reply to your question about whether I play heads up, I assume you mean no limit Hold'em. I'm actually an infrequent Hold'em player and my speciality is Omaha hi/lo. Look me up on Sharkscope (PokerStars) under the same name. Strange how you knew to capitalise my alias as that's how I have it on Stars. Then again you could be just doing what is known in Latin as Capitis Diminutio, which isn't so nice.

Ooooooops wrote:

What if he'd bet like 90% - 100% of the pot on the turn, what do you think the best move is.

(if the flop action went the same way)




78OFFTILT, where are the casino's in kent? i'm looking at moving near aylesford / maidstone.. I'm gonna need a casino or a poker club to start haunting!!


There are not really any casinos in Kent. You've got the Grosvenor at Thanet. I went there one time played a £40+£5 rebuy NLHE tourney there and chopped when we went down to 3 for £400. But the rest/best that are near are in London. Loose Cannon, The Vic, Big Slick @ Purley, The International on Old Road, The Empire at Leicester Square or there's The Full House down at Reigate in Surrey and that's just to name a few. If you're willing to go far to get a high quality game I recommend Dusk Till Dawn in Nottingham. I used to work as a dealer there so I know a fair bit about the place. The closest thing you'll get to a poker game round here is in Rileys, home games or pub poker. So home games are your best bet because the other two are generally awful with no cash games. My mates and I have a home game in Gillingham when we're not all broke. Which we are at the moment sadly. Bloody economy/inflation.

With regards to your question about what if he bet 90%/100% of the pot I think it is still correct to call. Its only when he bets more than the pot that it becomes bad to call and even then he'd have to bet at least 1.5x the pot for it to become bad to call. You've got to factor in implied odds a lot especially when last to act. Players who are first to act tend to either bet into you blindly when you hit your hand or check and call a big bet hoping you're bluffing and call the bet because they think you may've bet because they checked and showed weakness. That's partly why position is so important.

I think you definitely have to distinguish this draw from a normal flush draw scenario where you may only have no overcards to pair up or no straight cards to hit. Just 9 outs to hit a flush and you'd have to get around 4 to 1 to call, so in this case he would have to bet $0.90 or less for that to be OK to call. $0.90 would make you break even assuming no further betting but actually is still profitable to call since there will be further betting generally. You'll only break even in that spot when he check/folds when you hit your hand.
Ooooooops
#14 Posted : 9/7/2010 12:04:40 AM(UTC)
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Thanks for the post man, could'nt of explained it better really and will definitely be taking this on board.



There are no good casinos in kent? This is not good news to my ears.

Aren't the Rileys tournaments just crap shoots with like super turbo blind levels? Cash game in Rileys?


Don't hate the game, hate the player.
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78offtilt on 9/7/2010(UTC)
78offtilt
#15 Posted : 9/7/2010 12:41:23 AM(UTC)
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Ooooooops wrote:
Thanks for the post man, could'nt of explained it better really and will definitely be taking this on board.



There are no good casinos in kent? This is not good news to my ears.

Aren't the Rileys tournaments just crap shoots with like super turbo blind levels? Cash game in Rileys?



Yeah they're crapshoots. Emphasis on crap. 15 minute levels starting at 25/50 with 5k starting stack for £10 and you'll only get around 20-50 runners tops - and get this - they only pay the top three. And no cash games - they don't have the appropriate gaming license.
J Okvist
#16 Posted : 9/7/2010 7:11:26 AM(UTC)
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Oooops Yes even if the bet is 90/100% potbet o turn you should call i m o
But prob the best play at least in higher levels is to reraise flop and maybe even get it in on the flop most likely the opponent will fold
there lies the big equity sacrificing for the times that he will actually call.

78OFFTILT
You and me both know that its very very unlikely that both the J and 9 is an out prob none of them actually
You shouldnt even have brought that up its just so unlikely.
And as i said u saw in the video that the 9 wasnt an out so that was the actual wrong part.
So you cant make an example where the 9 is an out then thats all i said.
So it was NEVER possible like u said for him to have 21 outs.
And NO the probabilites is not at all towards 21 outs either its much more likely between 10-18 in the hand or worst case scenario up against higher flushdraws and then he has almost none outs, now the other guy only had 1 pair
worst hand possible really except for openended straigthdraw but cmon how many raises with that on a flushboard...
Very few.
Bluff-him-out-outs thats a new word how many outs do your reckon that is then? :)
And when in this particular hand do YOU think he could of used his so called bluff-outs??
Dont know what your talking about captalising on your alias i just responded to you it is your alias or do you want me to call you something else lol?
And anyway as i said its not an attack on you personally as u seem to think althoguh i said that very clearly in the last post.
But as i explained carefully now u can see that you did do some mistakes and that was all i meant.
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78offtilt on 9/7/2010(UTC)
78offtilt
#17 Posted : 9/7/2010 10:04:01 AM(UTC)
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J Okvist,

Thank you for your reply.

J Okvist wrote:

You shouldnt even have brought that up its just so unlikely. And as i said u saw in the video that the 9 wasnt an out so that was the actual wrong part.


Yes. We saw that Hero has 18 outs in this hand.

J Okvist wrote:

So you cant make an example where the 9 is an out (snip)


I beg to differ and will proceed to do so.

J Okvist wrote:

So it was NEVER possible like u said for him to have 21 outs.


Firstly I agree its optimistic to expect it. On the other hand to suggest "NEVER" would be unrealistic. For example the Villain could have a hand like A8, A7, K8, Q8, 33, or 44 (remember the board is 2-7-8-5). In this case he didn't but he could have one of those hands. I'm not saying its likely at all. I'm only saying its possible. It is not correct to equate a possibility with something being likely to occur. I think you're mistaking me for thinking that the contrary is true. He could also have 5c6c giving Hero 20 outs.

J Okvist wrote:

And NO the probabilites is not at all towards 21 outs either its much more likely between 10-18 in the hand


The word 'towards' when I used it meant 'towards' and not as though you could read the sentence and remove the word 'towards' and have the sentence mean what it means without that word. I said 'towards' because I meant 'towards'.

J Okvist wrote:

worst case scenario up against higher flushdraws and then he has almost none outs


Yes, if you consider "almost none outs" to be twelve. In the event that Villain holds Ax, Qx or Kx of hearts, Hero's outs are:

3 jacks
3 tens
3 nines
3 sixes

for a 26.06% chance to make the best hand. Slightly better than 3 to 1.

J Okvist wrote:

Bluff-him-out-outs thats a new word how many outs do your reckon that is then? :)
And when in this particular hand do YOU think he could of used his so called bluff-outs??


Bluffing outs are cards which can come that scare Villain and they work best when Hero has position. They induce the Villain to check and (hopefully) to fold to Hero's bet. Alternatively a card can come which Hero can represent even though Villain has already bet. Maybe Villain's bet was a little weak. A raise would be a great idea on a scare card if Hero has a good read that Villain will probably fold to the raise. I also think position itself is a bluffing out. I like to give myself 1 extra out when in-game if I have position.

J Okvist wrote:

Dont know what your talking about captalising on your alias i just responded to you it is your alias or do you want me to call you something else lol?


I actually made a minor mistake. The term I was referring to was actually Capitis Diminutio Maxima... I left out the Maxima part. It refers to the devaluing of a man by capitalising his name. I'm fairly sure in Roman times this was done to slaves. These days almost every business does it when they send you mail or call you on the phone, eg MR JOHN DOE. What they're doing is referring to your corporate entity rather than you the man. The reason they do that is because as they are corporations they literally cannot speak to living beings, they can only speak to other corporations in commerce.

This forum's not really appropriate for that discussion however.

J Okvist wrote:

And anyway as i said its not an attack on you personally as u seem to think althoguh i said that very clearly in the last post.
But as i explained carefully now u can see that you did do some mistakes and that was all i meant.


I took no offense whatesoever.

However I have made no mistakes as far as I can tell and if you again re-read with care what I have written, this time bear in mind that:

It is not correct to equate a possibility with something being likely to occur

You'll should probably read each word carefully when I say "read with care" because when I use a word in a serious discussion I strongly tend to not make light of its use. In other words, tend to take each word I say literally.
J Okvist
#18 Posted : 9/7/2010 6:35:09 PM(UTC)
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78OFFTILT
In this particular hand we all knew the villain had 89 and J9 Hero thats the fact so thats why i think u cant tell him that he can have 21 outs.
Were talking about a specific hand here not 1 you just took out from the sky and decided to compare with the Heros.
I hope u understand this.
In a just made up hand where we DONT know the villains hand u can make an example where u prob a favorite even.
But that besides the point u cant change the Villains card in this hand how much u want too :)
So i guess were talking about two different things and thats fair enough then but now u might see where im coming from too.
But you said quote (The fact is however the probabilities should be weighted more towards the 21 outs)
That is wrong towards 21 outs must mean somewhere between 19-21 outs it cant be much more stretched then that.
I Would bet my money all day that the probaibilites of the Villains specific hand in this situation is 10-18 outs more then 19-21
And youll never convince me otherwise cause sorry mate that is wrong.
He almost had the worst hand possible now the Villain with only 1 pair and still the Hero didnt have more then 18 outs you have to see this too?
What if he had 2 pair, higher flushdraw, set,pair and a flushdraw, or as in this case any pair with 9 or J kicker??
They all are 18 outs or less so dont say that its more likely towards 21 outs.
And u say in the case if the Villain has a better flushdraw that he has 12 outs 26,06% is that good???
I think its crap-odds mate but then again your not telling the whole truth he has a 26,06% of HITTING his hand BUT that doesnt mean its the best hand at the end what if he hits a 9 or J on the turn and the Villian hits the A K or Q on the riv then his hand isnt best although he hit his outs.
Another thing on the flop he doesnt have all outs cause they come 3 more on the turn so actually on the flop against the Villain in this case he has 15 outs
3 jacks 3 tens and 9 flush outs.
1 user thanked J Okvist for this useful post.
78offtilt on 9/7/2010(UTC)
78offtilt
#19 Posted : 9/7/2010 8:25:53 PM(UTC)
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I give up lol
J Okvist
#20 Posted : 9/7/2010 8:30:07 PM(UTC)
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Thats what i wanted to hear that im right in this case :) TY
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